Welcome to Team Haverkate Real Estate Specializing in Mid Century Modern Desert Homes

During Modernism Week 2011, Park Imperial South on South Araby Drive in Palm Springs celebrated its 50th birthday and invited the public to tour its 31-unit condominium community.  Created in 1960 by one of the nation’s most noted residential architects, Barry Berkus, AIA, Park Imperial South’s remarkable Mid Century Modern design still thrives and remains virtually untouched.

www.parkimperialsouthps.com www.modernismweek.com

Berkus guided the tour and presented his take on modernism’s mark on architecture in Palm Springs and across America.  A video archive of the design tour and Berkus’ discussion is posted here at Team Haverkate Real Estate.

“Being acknowledged by those who live within the architect’s dream is the highest honor one can aspire to , and the fact that residents here have kept my dream in condition is a remarkable compliment,” Berkus said.

www.24-7pressrelease.com/press-release/barry-berkus-aia-to-address-modernism-week

Founder and president of B3 Architects and Berkus Design Studio in Santa Barbara, Berkus has remained on the forefront of residential design in this country and abroad for over 40 years.  His name is synonymous with innovation, and his firm has won hundreds of design and planning awards from regional, national and international competitions.

www.barryberkus.com www.b3architects.com

Berkus began college with a focus on economics, but he always loved to draw.  After attending Santa Barbara City College, he transferred to USC’s  architecture program, saying “It was exciting and I knew I’d found my place.”

He pursued housing, an industry that during the 1950′s and 60s most architects thought was “beneath them” and many were convinced they couldn’t make a living at it.

“When we started, housing was looked down upon,” he recalled. “I lead a design panel at the National Association of Home Builders, but couldn’t do one at the American Institute of Architecture.”

“I had a goal to change the way housing looked,” he said.  “I wanted to give it a sculpted feeling, an innovative component to nurture people.  I strived to use volume, light and shapes in my homes.”

Berkus’ ability to produce house plans quickly also turned the odds in his favor.

“Housing as a product has to move on and off the boards quickly because it didn’t pay very well,” he said.

www.noozhawk.com/article/120309_barry_berkus

Berkus began as an intern for noted Palm Springs architect William Cody before opening his own firm and designed Park Imperial South at the age of 25.

During his talk at the tour, Berkus recalled sitting at construction sites for John Lautner projects, inspiring him to develop his  own unique design vision.  Berkus said Park Imperial South was an experiment in design and construction.  The distinctive folded-plate roofs were constructed in Oakland before being transported to Palm Springs where they were lifted into place by crane.

www.itssosunny.com/2011/02/20/palm-springs-modernism-week-home-tour-feature

“I wanted to design a space for people who could not afford an architect,” said Berkus of the project.

As his company went public, Berkus began considering modular housing.  He researched data at UCLA on every modular created up to that point and concluded that mobile homes were the only successful factory-built house that made its manufacturer money and lasted for any length of time.

“Let’s change the way housing is built,” he said when he approached national builders with the first “smart house” and various homes on wheels.

“I’ve always gone the far edge of the planet in my thinking,” Berkus admits.  “I’ve always been interested in investigating.  I’m in my 70s now and I’ve failed a bunch, in part because security never interested me.”

“Architects, by nature, are optimists,” he said.  “I’ve grown by taking risks and assumed it would work out.  Even recently, with single family homes in Santa Barbara, I’ve had to build them and then people showed up to buy them.  I knew it was right.”

www.noozhawk.com/article/120309_barry_berkus

It seems Berkus was right about his long lasting design at Park Imperial South as well.

One objective of the Modernism Week tour was to demonstrate the complex’s design longevity both interior and exterior as well as the versatile floor plan.

Nine homes in varying stages of rehabilitation and remodel were open for guests to view.  Several units had been completely redone with new kitchens and appliances, upgraded bathrooms, redesigned patios and new flooring, while other units retained original design elements such as range hoods, cabinetry and intercom entertainment systems.

For the past 10 years, Park Imperial South homeowners association has been restoring the complex with new landscaping, entrance signage, lighting and wood paneling to each home’s entrance.  The Palm Springs Preservation Foundation has granted funds to continue restoration projects, and the sold-out tour during Modernism Week benefited the development’s renovation projects.

www.itssosunny.com/2011/02/20/palm-springs-modernism-week-home-tour-feature

For Berkus, thinking outside the grid comes naturally and so does the task of reinvention.

“Everything has to fall apart so you can come up for air,” he said.  “Residential architecture is about romance, learning, fulfillment of a journey.  It should never be below you to do housing.”

www.residentialarchitect.com

Palm Springs has a proud heritage of innovative Mid Century Modern architecture in public buildings as well as custom, tract and condominium homes.  For a personal tour of Mid Century Modern properties currently for sale, contact Ralph Haverkate at ralph@RalphHaverkate.com.

– Pamela Bieri

We can’t really know, but there may be a reason that if they go lower, they won’t stay there. The long-term inflation rate of U.S. housing is around 2.5%. Let’s look at the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for some high-tier markets. The graph below has the Index for three western U.S. cities, with an added line that shows the normal long term rate of housing price inflation of about 2.5%.

This long term “normal” growth rate shows that home prices should be about 30% higher now than in 2000. Prices in Vegas and Phoenix have dropped below this long term value, and there should be upward pressure based on this historical trend. Higher than average inflation is expected and will further increase this upward pressure.

L.A. may be a bit different, as it may have been still feeling the effects of the 1990’s California bubble and recession when the Index base of year 2000 was established. If so, this might have raised the base home values in 2000, made the peak lower and therefore today’s index lower, closer to Phoenix and L.A. If this is not the case, L.A. may still be above the normal inflation value, and vulnerable to further declines.

In the Palm Springs area, homes that have devalued from about 35 to 50% may have hit bottom, at least in the long view of things. They may stay there until economic and employment conditions improve.

To see how they might recover from that point see ”Waiting for Price Recovery”
Wayne Longman

In the Palm Springs area, the only homes that are selling are at 30-50% discounts.  Many would-be home buyers seem to be holding back in fear (or hope) that prices will fall some more.  If you believe in Buy Low you should be wary of trying to buy at the bottom – that is very hard to do.  It’s better to get most of the benefit of the low, than to miss it altogether.  Median prices were actually lower last year than now.

It does look as if prices may fall again, but I may be wrong .  In the opinion of some, we saw prices rise last year due to various government stimulus programs, and they could rise again if private investment increases.  We have seen unemployment increase and that will increase the number of foreclosures.  The impact of new foreclosures should be minimal because we have seen the banks meter them onto the market about as fast as they are selling, which has kept prices stable.

Could a meaningful drop of 20% or more still happen?  If a Mid-Century Modern home was $500,000 at the peak, it is possibly worth around $300,000 now (a 40% drop).  I don’t believe it can go down to $200,000 (down 60%).  Could it go down 15% from $300,000 to $255,000?  It is possible, but a slight market improvement could keep the price steady or slightly increase it, as happened over the last year.  Meanwhile the buyer is still looking and we are getting closer to the time when prices will definitely increase.

Some sellers are waiting too.  If they need to sell, there isn’t much point in waiting for the return to high prices.  That won’t happen for many years.  They are likely better off selling now to start a new financial or housing base rather than dealing with an uncertain future.

For both Buyers and Sellers, there is a financial risk of doing nothing, and you may miss the chance of finding that perfect Kreisel Alexander or Walter S. White.

- Wayne Longman

Haverkate Real Estate Recommends Dwell On Design: The West Coast’s Largest Design Show Celebrates the Best Modern Projects, Products and People.

Welcome to www.HaverkateRealEstate.com , Palm Springs’ premier site for Mid-Century Modern Real Estate and design resources.

If you can’t get enough Mid-Century Modern, do not miss Dwell On Design (www.dwellondesign.com ), the West Coast’s largest design event, returning June 25-27 to the Los Angeles Convention Center. It’s only a short two-hour drive from Palm Springs.

Curated by the editors of Dwell Magazine, this three-day extravaganza features more than 200 brands on exhibition with design-forward exhibits, competitions, East and West side home tours, and over 80 presentations and panels by design industry  leaders and influencers.

“We’re thrilled to see how the creative community in Los Angeles has taken cultural ownership of Dwell on Design, making this show the premiere event on the design calendar,” said Dwell Media President Michela O’Connor Abrams.

It’s no wonder that Los Angeles has taken an active role in this major design event:  also called California Modern style, Los Angeles and Palm Springs offers a wealth of residential  Mid-Century Modern architecture, furnishings, and designs.

While in LA, take a look at some prime examples on the self-drive home tours into areas that most visitors don’t see.  From Larchmont to Silver Lake and Atwater Village to the east, and a “surf and turf” drive from West Hollywood to the beaches, explore Mid-Century Modern homes like the Walnut and Skywave houses in Venice Beach, the Los Feliz residence or Auburn 7 house in Silver Lake district.  The landmark Stahl House tour (by Architect Pierre Koenig, 1960) in the Hollywood Hills is sold out, however.  Planning and engineering company Latitude 33 ( www.latitude33.com ) is the tour sponsor.

Check out Room & Board (www.roomandboard.com), a respected American purveyor of “all things domestic,” who will be on the Design show floor offering sensible and affordable Mid-Century classics.   A bevy of small Southern California-based brands will also join their international counterparts.

Gleaming rows of low-flow faucets, fixtures, toilets, bathtubs, and kitchen designs by Kohler (www.kohler.com), CB2 (www.cb2.com )  Holdit (www.holdithome.com), Miele (www.mieleusa.com) and Ecofabulous (www.ecofabulous.com) offer eco-friendly, sustainable innovative products.

Exhibits run the gamut of building materials and systems, from the bright lights of design-forward Lutron (www.lutron.com) to the cozy environs of Napoleon fireplace.  A lush landscape of planters, prefabs, shrubs and sheds with solar panels, outdoor carpet, and patio furniture, Dwell Outdoors explores exterior spaces with a focus on greenery and green energy.

Los Angeles’ AIA design conference,  MOBIUS LA ( www.aialosangeles.org ), offers  multi-day professional development seminars, lectures, panel discussions and special events like the Restaurant Design Awards Ceremony. More than 100 of leading design, sustainability and culinary thinkers will be presenting live on the Design Innovation and  Sustainability stages.

During the Ideas Conference, The New Face of Affluence seminar turns brands toward a new generation of high value customers who spend $303 billion annually on discretionary purchases from apparel and autos to home furnishings and travels.  Speakers include Rose Marcario of Patagonia (www.patagonia.com), Michela O’Connor Abrams (www.DwellMedia.com)  , Chris Chamberlin of Paine PR, Richard Whitehall of SMART Design (www.smartdesignworldwide.com), advisor and social media expert Dale Larson, and Betsy Burroughs of FocusCatalyst (www.FocusCatalyst.com).

In Palm Springs, be sure to contact www.HaverkateReal Estate.com/resource.php. for the most comprehensive listings of Mid-Century Modern homes and estates for sale in the California desert area.

We’ll see you at Dwell on Design June 25-27! By Pamela Bieri

We see a lot of news about home prices, both good and bad.  Nobody can predict the future, but we might find clues about it in the past.  The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, captured the California home price collapse in 1990, as shown in the first chart - for high-tier Los Angeles homes.  Then the prices had increased by about a factor of two, just like our last bubble, as shown in the second chart.  The scale in the first chart has been expanded to show they were very similar bubbles, even to their relative size, shape, duration and the false recoveries in 1991 and 2007.  Maybe we can use the 1990′s experience to project our current recovery. 

If so, the blue bars show that it took seven years from the peak to just get to the point where prices began a true recovery.  Our price recovery may not start until 2013, and this is a worse economic situation than in the 1990′s. In between now and 2013 we may see still lower prices.  It is difficult to tell if the small peak we see today is a false recovery or the reaction to an overshoot in the drop, but from the last bubble it is not likely the beginning of recovery.  Again historically, that increase around 2013 will be at the rate of inflation, which in the long term is around 2.5% a year.  If so, this is relative price stability and isn’t bad news – volatility in home prices is the bad news because neither sellers or buyers know what to expect.  – Wayne Longman

Case-Shiller LA High Tier 1990 Bubble

LA Case-Shiller High Tier 2006 Bubble

Bank-owned properties (aka REO’s) are known to affect surrounding property prices.  This effect might be seen in past sale prices in the well-defined Palm Springs community of Vista Las Palmas.  This graph shows a decrease in the long term price trend of Non-REO homes at about the time the REO homes were sold.  The effect isn’t that great because REO’s are generally priced low, but close to the market.  There may even be early signs of price strengthening as they fade into the past.  As always though, prices are determined by Buyers.  – Wayne Longman

High end home sales in the Palm Springs area have taken a big hit.  It’s hard to see trends when sales are combined with low end foreclosures, or when looking at a given price bracket.  If for example you look at homes that sold for over $1,000,000, your numbers are skewed by those homes that once sold there, but now sell for less. 

The first graph below attempts to get around this by looking at a constant group of homes in four Valley cities (Palm Springs, Rancho Mirage, Palm Desert and Indian Wells) that are all 4,000 square feet in size or larger.  To get rid of the “noise” of wide variation of sales prices in this range, each point on the graph represents the moving average sales price of the immediately previous 60 sales. In addition to the big average sales price drop, there are many fewer sales per month now than at the peak.

The second graph showing just the most recent 60 sales, doesn’t show any major change in the overall trend. In this graph the line doesn’t represent a moving average but just the overall trend.  Keep in mind these are what people are buying, and don’t reflect asking prices.  Those wanting to sell though should look at the prices that are selling.

I had expected to see a leveling off or even a small average price increase.

A significant drop in the number of sales of large homes over $3,000,000 can be attributed to falling sales prices, fewer buyers, or both. There is no doubt prices have fallen at the high-end, so many have dropped out of this niche, but it also shows that high-end sellers should attempt to price below this no-man’s land.

Home Sales Over $3,000,000

Sale prices could drop more in any given development if they haven’t returned to circa-2003 levels that deflate prices back to their non-bubble growth rate. This has happened in several local high-end communities, so there are some good deals around, but not all.

Those holding out for a return to the top, may wait a long time. It took LA ten years to recover from the 1990’s housing decline. Housing appreciates at the inflation rate, around 2.5%, so it could take even longer than that. This applies to all price ranges. If you want to sell, price to market. Most buyers are then confident that they can buy safely.

We’ve seen higher- end home prices drop here at a rate of 1.5 to 2% per month, since January 2008.   A 35% or more price reduction from the highs in 2006-2007 is not uncommon.  In the last few months though, prices seem more stable and we may get a modest annual boost from the increased numbers of buyers here for our winter season. 

For individual sales exact trend prices may not matter too much as buyers are willing to pay more for a property they love and less for one they want to upgrade.  Two buyers may easily differ on the value of a home by 10%, which can mask any short-term trend value change.   The amount of inventory can also affect price if the lower priced homes in the same class are bought first – leaving later buyers with fewer choices and higher prices.

So, in a stable or further declining market, there is no reason for Sellers to wait as prices are not expected to rapidly rise if history repeats itself.  It took LA 10 years to recover the high they experienced in 1999 from the housing downturn then

It’s also a good time for Buyers, as we may be seeing the bottom.  Those buyers who believe we can go down another 20% might wait, but that’s a gamble.