Mixed Signals
Thursday, February 25th, 2010The most recent Case-Shiller index shows the average price of all home sales in Los Angeles from November through December increased by about 0.3%. When you dig a little deeper, over the last three reports it shows a slight decrease for high tier homes (those over about $500,000), and about a 5% increase for homes below that price limit. On the face, it means healthier low-end market activity, with supply perhaps slightly lagging demand, resulting in higher prices.
On the other hand, other and more recent-activity factoids are the national 20% drop in February consumer confidence, and an 11% drop of new home sales in January. Freddie Mac now reports that a record 4 percent of its borrowers are at least three months delinquent on their loans and in danger of foreclosure.
Our own Desert Area MLS shows a 20% drop in closings in January, while the inventory of bank-owned and others has remained fairly constant. Those listed above $500,000 are significant in numbers – about 1/3 of the total, but they sold only about 1/7 of the total in January. The number of new listings above $500,000 jumped from about 260 in January to over 400 in February.
All this may indicate a stronger Buyers’ market in the high end with more supply and less demand resulting in lower prices. The overall lower buying activity and consumer confidence may further serve to weaken prices in all tiers. – Wayne Longman

















